Swiggy’s Market Cap Down by ₹60,000 Crore. Can it Bounce Back? All Details

Shares of Swiggy are moving on a downward trajectory over surging cash burns in the quick commerce space, intensifying competition from rivals and slowdown in its core delivery business. Shares touched an all-time-high of ₹617 in December, but from thereon the value has tumbled by about 43%, wiping out nearly ₹60,000 crore from its market cap. The stock is down by 9% from its IPO issue price of ₹390.

The battle for dominance in the quick-commerce space has proven costly for the delivery giant as new players are weighing heavily on slashing prices, while eroding profitability across the board. Though Swiggy Instamart remains a key contender, Zomato’s Blinkit, Zepto, BigBasket and Flipkart are neck and neck with each other by offering heavy discounts, thereby driving the industry toward

s an unsustainable cash burn cycle. As per the analysts, Swiggy’s profitability in the quick commerce space remains uncertain as EBITDA losses in FY26 are expected to balloon before showing any signs of improvement in FY27, according to Jefferies.

What are the problems?

Swiggy’s traditional food delivery business has reported a moderation in gross order value (GOV) growth over the past few quarters, especially in the urban markets. Additionally, ambitious expansion into quick commerce has become a high-stakes bet that is proving costlier than anticipated.

“Swiggy is a leading Internet franchise in India. The company enjoys 45% share in food delivery, which should grow in high-teens in the medium term along with margin expansion. QC offers tremendous growth opportunity although faces high competition and hence, profitability will remain under pressure. This would result in negative Ebitda and FCF over FY25-27,” Jefferies analyst Vivek Maheshwari said. The brokerage gave a ‘hold’ rating on the stock citing near-term pressures on margins and cash flow. Both Swiggy and its rival Zomato are expected to see surging EBITDA losses in their quick commerce businesses due to aggressive store expansions and heavy discounting.

Is there more pain ahead?

Though short-term headwinds exist, some analysts said that the recent market correction has created an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Buoyed by better unit economics, rationalized discounts, and improved customer behavior trends, JM Financial sees a major improvement in industry dynamics starting FY26. The firm has set a target price of ₹500.

ICICI has given a ‘buy’ call on the stock by setting a target price of ₹740.

Quick Commerce: an opportunity or a golden opportunity?

Though losses have increased over recent times, analysts remain optimistic about quick commerce’s long-term potential. Swiggy Instamart’s GMV has already touched $2 billion, making it the third-largest player behind Blinkit and Zepto. Jefferies expects the industry to see a staggering 75% CAGR in GOV till FY27.

JM Financial analysts said, “Moreover, QC players are presently seeing a sharp rise in their AOVs as they are now increasingly offering several high value item categories/large size SKUs while their direct costs on a per order basis are unlikely to change in the same proportion. The accelerated channel shift in consumer purchases from mom-and-pop stores, modern retail and traditional e-commerce to QC also enables incumbents to derive better commissions and ad income from suppliers/brands.”

Future outlook

While the near-term outlook remains weak amid aggressive competition and cash burn concerns, Swiggy’s long-term outlook remains optimistic. Analysts agree that the food delivery market still has significant room for growth, with annual and monthly transacting customers steadily increasing. Innovations including sub-15-minute deliveries could unlock new demand.